Gold price prediction today: Gold is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias, analysts feel, considering the diminishing geopolitical tensions and positive talks of trade deals ahead of US President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. What is the gold price outlook for the coming days? Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for:Gold Performance:
- On June 30, spot gold traded between $3,248 and $3,300 as the metal took support around $3250 for the second day in a row.
- The metal fell overnight on reduced safe demand due to the Iran-Israel ceasefire and trade deal optimism. However, the metal recovered in the European session and was stable in the US session on the Fed rate cut notions as US yields eased further.
- Markets look for more than 50 bps cuts ahead this year as US data, especially job data, are turning out to be disappointing amid somewhat contained inflationary pressure.
- Earlier, spot gold slumped 2.79% in the week ending June 27 on reduced safe haven demand and healthy risk appetite.
Tariff developments:Markets are hopeful that the US will be able to finalize trade deals with several nations ahead of the July 9 deadline as talks with India, Japan and many other nations continue, while reportedly, the US is close to clinching deals with Mexico and Vietnam. In addition, the EU is hopeful of reaching some sort of trade agreement with the US before the deadline.President Trump said that he will not need to extend the pause on tariffs which are to take effect from July 9 as he intends to send a very fair letter to each country regarding their tariff rates.Data roundup:US data released Monday were weaker than expected as MNI Chicago and Dallas Fed manufacturing Activity both trailed the forecast.China’s home sales slump continued in June as the value of new-home sales from the 100 largest property companies stood at 339 billion Yuan, a 23% decline from a year ago. China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs (June) came in at 49.70 (forecast 49.60) and 50.50 (forecast 50.30) respectively as composite PMI improved from 50.40 to 50.70.Upcoming data and events:US Senate Republicans are committed to meet the July 4 deadline to pass legislation that contains $3.80 billion tax breaks and spending cuts. The Senate is beginning an all-day session of amendment votes on Monday in which democrats may block any provisions that may increase costs for working families or small businesses as they remain concerned about the possibility of the bill increasing the deficit. The House may vote as soon as Wednesday provided the Senate can pass the bill. Democrats maintain that Trump’s tax breaks are adding to the national debt.US data on cards today include ISM manufacturing (June), S&P global US manufacturing PMI, construction spending (May), and JOLTs job openings (May).China’s Caixin PMIs (June) will also be in focus.The week is data-packed with crucial US data like ISM manufacturing (June), ADP employment change (June), nonfarm payrolls (June) and ISM Services Index (June).US Treasury Secretary sees rates falling:Treasury Secretary Bessent said it would not make sense to increase sales of longer-term securities at current yields as expects the whole yield curve to shift down as inflation falls. He said that some of the Fed officials already serving at the Federal Reserve are under consideration to head the central bank.US Dollar Index and yields:On June 30, the US Dollar Index fell to 96.85, a fresh cycle low marking the lowest level since February 2022. At the time of writing, the Index was hovering around 96.87, down nearly 0.50% on the day.The ten-year yields at 4.23% were down around 1% as the yields hover around 2-month low. 2-Year yields at 3.72% were down around 3 bps.Gold ETFs:As of June 27, total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 90.61MOz, highest since August 2023. ETF holdings are up 9.36% YTD as the ETFs recorded net inflows for the second straight month. ETFs were on track of recording a monthly inflow of more than 2 MOz after a decline of 0.68 MOz in May — the first monthly decline this year.COMEX gold inventory:COMEX gold inventory stood at 37.048 MOz, which is down around 25% from the record high level of 45.072MOz seen on April 4, as buyers opt for physical delivery.Central Banks’ gold reserves approach historic high:In the post-war Bretton Woods era, the stock of gold held by central banks peaked at 38,000 tons in the mid-1960s. Their reserves are approaching the historic high as the reserves reached 36,000 tons in 2024.Gold Price Outlook:In the very short-term, tariff news flows and risk appetite will be the most important factors governing gold prices. As such the yellow metal is well supported on huge ETF inflows, a weakening US Dollar, investors opting for physical delivery, rate cut expectations and a shaky Iran-Israel ceasefire deal. However, presently, investors are focused more on trade deals and expectations of a pickup in corporate earnings as Q2 results will start pouring in soon.In all possibility, the July 9 trade deal deadline will get extended as trade negotiations are likely to extend further. Deadline extension would be a bearish development for the yellow metal.In such a scenario, barring re-eruption of geopolitical jitters and trade frictions, gold is expected to trade with a slight bearish bias. It may decline to $3228 (MCX August gold contract Rs 94,100)/$3200 (Rs 93,300) in the very short-term; however, medium to long term prospects remain quite bright. Interim support is at $3247 (Rs 94,700). Resistance is at $3310 (Rs 96,600)/$3322(Rs 96,900)/$3350 (Rs 97,700). (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
