Oil prices remained steady on Monday following last week’s gains, as markets awaited the outcome of renewed US-China trade negotiations in London. Brent remained above $66 per barrel following a 4% increase last week, with West Texas Intermediate hovering near $65.US and Chinese negotiators are scheduled to meet in London on Monday for the first round of talks under the revived economic and trade consultation mechanism, raising hopes of easing tensions between the world’s two largest economies.The announcement came after a rare phone call between the two nations’ top leaders on Thursday, as both sides face growing pressure to ease tensions—especially amid China’s export curbs on rare earths disrupting global supply chains.“The meeting should go very well,” US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Friday afternoon. “Thank you for your attention to this matter!” he added.Oil prices recorded their first weekly increase in three weeks following the announcement. London crude prices have declined by 11% this year, reflecting concerns that intensifying trade disagreements could impede global growth and energy consumption.Simultaneously, OPEC+ has increased production more rapidly than expected, fuelling concerns about potential oil surplus in the latter half of the year affecting prices.Oil price volatility has moderated since mid-May, despite downward pressure during Trump’s second term. Market participants are evaluating multiple factors, including positive developments in trade negotiations, increased fuel demand during summer travel in the northern hemisphere, alongside potential risks stemming from situations in Iran and Russia.The outcome of the upcoming UK meeting could play a key role in shaping market sentiment amid ongoing trade tensions, Gao Mingyu, Beijing-based chief energy analyst at SDIC Essence Futures Co told Bloomberg.“If the UK meeting continues to signal optimism, it could weaken the negative economic impact of the trade war,” the analyst noted.“After the short-term bearish impact of OPEC+’s July ouptut hike was digested, improving macro sentiment, stronger seasonal demand, and lingering geopolitical risks have all provided support,” she added.Since mid-May, oil futures have moved within a narrow $4 range, while volatility has dropped to its lowest levels since early April. At the same time, Brent crude’s prompt spread has widened into backwardation, a market pattern that signals stronger near-term demand.
