NEW DELHI: Markets ended the week with over 1% losses, dragged down by ongoing global tariff uncertainties and a weak start to the first-quarter earnings.Despite a stable start, across the first three sessions, selling pressure in final sessions pulled both the Indian benchmark indices BSE Sensex and Nifty50 near weekly lows. Sensex dropped 689.81 points, or 0.83%, to settle at 82,500.47, while the Nifty50 declined 205.40 points, or 0.81%, to close at 25,149.85 on Friday.Adding to the pressure, the Nifty50 breached its crucial short-term support, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), altering the recent bullish sentiment and suggesting the potential for extended consolidation or range-bound movement in the coming sessions.“Looking ahead, two key factors will drive the next directional move: Q1 Earnings Season – Investors will closely track corporate results for signs of margin stability, demand recovery, and management commentary, especially amid a mixed macro backdrop,” Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities told ANI.Progress on the Tariff Front – Any clarity or resolution on global tariff-related tensions could significantly influence risk sentiment and capital flows,” he added.
Key factors expected to influence D-Street in the upcoming week:
A range of domestic and global developments is expected to steer investor sentiment and market movements in the coming week. Here’s a breakdown of the major triggers:1. Q1 Earnings Season in Focus: With the corporate earnings season gathering pace, several heavyweight companies are set to release their April-June results. Market participants will closely watch numbers from HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Wipro, JSW Steel, L&T Finance, and HDFC Bank, among others, for cues on sectoral strength and business outlook.2. Key inflation data: Macroeconomic indicators will also play a role, with key inflation figures expected both in India and the US On July 14, India will release the WPI and CPI inflation data, which will offer fresh insight into pricing trends and could impact the RBI’s policy outlook.Globally, attention will shift to the US inflation print, with the June CPI (YoY) data due on July 15, followed by the PPI (MoM) and Industrial Production (MoM) on July 16. These numbers will help gauge inflationary pressure and the state of manufacturing in the US.3. US Initial and Continuing Jobless claims: The week will wrap up with the release of US Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims on July 17, important indicators of labor market health. These data points are likely to influence investor sentiment amid ongoing speculation around global interest rate cuts.4. Global uncertainty: There is uncertainty over potential new US tariffs under the Trump administration that continues to keep markets on edge. However, optimism around a possible US-India trade agreement may support investor confidence.5. Active IPO market: A flurry of public issues, including listings of Crizan Ltd and Glen Industries, will keep primary market activity buzzing. The IPO pipeline remains strong, offering both risks and opportunities for investors.6. Technical outlook: Technically, Nifty has slipped below its recent swing low and the 21-day EMA, signaling short-term weakness. The index is now approaching support at the 200-hourly moving average. “On the downside, the 24,500–24,900 zone will act as a key support area, while on the upside, 25,550 remains a critical hurdle in the event of a rebound, with major resistance at 25,750,” Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research at Religare Broking told ET.7. Rupee remain volatile: The Indian rupee closed the week weaker by 0.11% at 85.73, pressured by weak equities, firm commodity prices, and rising global uncertainties. With the dollar index climbing to 97.75, the rupee may remain volatile within a range of 85.25 to 86.20 in the coming days. Markets will stay cautious amid ongoing tariff talks and geopolitical shifts.8. FII-DII flows: The pattern of institutional activity will be tracked closely. On Friday, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 5,155.68 crore, while DIIs were net buyers at Rs 3,482.95 crore. Any reversal in this trend may influence market direction.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
