NEW DELHI: The Reserve Bank of India‘s upcoming interest rate decision, along with key macroeconomic data releases and global market cues, will play a pivotal role in determining equity market movements this week, according to market analysts.Marking the opening for June, market sentiment will also be shaped by trading patterns of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and developments on the tariff front, according experts quoted by PTI. “Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the outcome of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6. Additionally, with the new month beginning, participants will track high-frequency data including auto sales numbers and other economic indicators. Updates on the progress of monsoon and the trend in FII flows will also be closely monitored,” said Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.He added that fluctuations in the US bond market and updates on international trade negotiations will continue to impact global investor confidence.India’s economy exceeded expectations in the final quarter of 2024–25, recording an annual growth rate of 6.5 per cent. This expansion raised the country’s GDP to $3.9 trillion, positioning India to potentially surpass Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy in FY26.The January–March quarter alone saw a 7.4 per cent growth rate, marking a strong end to FY25. This robust performance was driven by higher consumer spending and notable gains in the construction and manufacturing sectors.Investors will also be closely watching the upcoming Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for both manufacturing and services sectors. “This week, interest rate-sensitive sectors, particularly PSU banks, are likely to remain in focus amid growing hopes of an RBI rate cut. Additionally, the release of monthly auto sales and volume data could trigger sector-specific moves in the automobile space,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research – Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.Last week, markets ended lower, with the BSE benchmark falling by 270.07 points or 0.33 per cent, and the NSE Nifty declining by 102.45 points or 0.41 per cent.Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services said, “The market is pricing in a 25 bps cut, which will improve the outlook for rate-sensitive sectors. The positive macroeconomic scripts can boost investor sentiments, but stability in the broader market will be contingent on strong earnings growth and receding trade tensions.”
