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- Inflation and Fed hikes pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high in 2023 and 2024.
- Average 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to end the year between 6.6% and 6.7%.
- Homebuyers might consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition when rates drop.
Good news for borrowers: The wait for lower rates may soon be over. As inflation slows and the economy cools off, mortgage rates have been slowly inching down, and they’re expected to fall further in the coming months and years.
The not-so-good news: Rates probably won’t go back to the historic lows we saw in 2020 and 2021. And once rates fall, homebuyers will likely have other challenges to contend with, including increased competition and rising home prices.
Understanding mortgage rates and their impact on the housing market
Mortgage rates fluctuate from day to day and even hour to hour, and where mortgage rates are currently trending can have a major impact on homebuying demand.
When mortgage rates are low, homebuying demand typically goes up. Low rates boost buying power and make it easier for potential buyers to afford a home purchase. However, an increase in demand can put upward pressure on home prices, erasing some of that benefit.
High mortgage rates typically have the opposite effect on demand. Because getting a mortgage becomes more expensive, many buyers drop out of the market to wait for rates to go back down. This can help keep prices from rising too much, but that’s not always the case.
As home prices rose to record highs in 2022 and 2023, many would-be home sellers chose to stay in their homes rather than sell and have to give up their historically low mortgage rates. This phenomenon, deemed the “lock-in effect,” constrained housing supply and pushed prices up, since there weren’t enough homes on the market to meet buyers’ needs.
Factors influencing mortgage rates
Mortgage rates are determined by a number of different economic influences, including investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, the current rate of inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and even geopolitical uncertainty.
In general, mortgage rates tend to go up when the U.S. economy is doing well or growing quickly, while slowing growth or a recession can push rates down.
Rates also vary by state, so where you live can determine how much you’ll pay to get a mortgage. Your individual financial profile, including your credit score, down payment, and debt-to-income ratio, will help determine the exact rate you get as well.
Current mortgage rate trends and analysis
Why are mortgage rates so high?
Mortgage rates initially dropped to historic lows in 2020 and 2021 after the Fed cut the federal funds rate to near zero to avoid a pandemic-induced recession. Then, as the Fed quickly raised rates to combat record high inflation, mortgage rates climbed.
Inflation has slowed significantly since it peaked in June 2022, when prices had risen 9.1% year over year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In June 2024, the Consumer Price Index was up just 3.0% year over year, a downtick from the previous month’s reading.
As long as inflation continues to cool, the Fed is expected to start lowering its benchmark rate later this year. This should help mortgage rates ease.
What are today’s mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates have been trending down for several months now, which is good news for borrowers. But compared to where they’ve been in the last decade, rates are still relatively high today. This has kept homebuying demand low.
Predictions and future outlook for mortgage rates
Mortgage rate predictions 2024
Most major forecasts expect rates to fall a bit in 2024. But exactly when will mortgage rates go down? Here’s how a few of the leading players stack up in their predictions:
The MBA forecast suggests that 30-year mortgage rates will fall to the 6.6% by the end of 2024, while Fannie Mae and NAR predict rates will end the year around 6.7%.
Will mortgage rates go down in 2025?
All three of the forecasts we looked at predict rates will continue to drop throughout 2025. The MBA sees rates ending next year at 6%, while Fannie Mae and NAR think rates will end up around 6.2% and 6.3%, respectively, by the end of 2025.
When will mortgage rates go down to 3%?
It’s possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that’s not likely to happen anytime soon.
Think about the reason why rates went so low in the first place: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed slashed rates and purchased a large number of mortgage-backed securities to stave off an economic crisis. This allowed mortgage rates to drop as low as they did, with 30-year mortgage rates reaching an all-time low of 2.65% in January 2021, according to Freddie Mac.
No one can predict exactly when another economy-altering event like the pandemic will occur, but barring something extreme, we likely won’t see rates that low again for a while. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, even told CNBC last year that he doesn’t think mortgage rates will reach the 3% range again in his lifetime.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying a house?
Because mortgage rates are still so high, some hopeful homebuyers have decided to wait for lower rates to start shopping for homes. But that’s not necessarily the best strategy, as there are some advantages to buying right now.
At the moment, the vast majority of borrowers have rates that are much lower than current rates. According to a Redfin analysis of Federal Housing Finance Agency data, 89% of homeowners had a mortgage rate below 6% in the third quarter of 2023. Many had rates that were even lower; 59.4% had a rate below 4%.
High rates have kept many of these homeowners from selling, since they don’t want to give up their current rates. While this has severely limited inventory, the lack of additional buyers on the market has also kept prices somewhat moderate.
Afifa Saburi, capital markets analyst for Veterans United Home Loans, says that buying now and refinancing later is a good strategy for buyers who want to avoid competition and the higher home prices that will likely come with it.
“Would-be buyers that have the ability to buy can avoid a potentially competitive market by locking in a purchase now and taking advantage of a refinance in the future,” says Saburi.
A mortgage refinance replaces your existing mortgage with a new mortgage, often with the goal of getting a lower rate or lower monthly payment. If you can afford to buy a house now, you could avoid a tough housing market later this year or next year and have the opportunity to lower your housing costs with a refinance once rates fall. Just be sure to shop around and get quotes from multiple mortgage refinance lenders to be sure you’re getting the best rate.
Will mortgage rates go down FAQs
Mortgage rates are expected to go down throughout the rest of 2024. Depending on which forecast you look at for housing market predictions in 2024, 30-year mortgage rates could end up between 6.6% and 6.7% by the end of the year.
Mortgage rates may go down in response to lower inflation, slowing economic growth, or easing Fed policy.
Mortgage rates are currently expected to continue trending down through 2024 and into 2025. The Mortgage Bankers Association thinks that 30-year mortgage rates could fall to 6% in 2025.
Mortgage rates for 2023 peaked in October, when 30-year rates hit 7.79%, according to Freddie Mac.
It’s hard to accurately predict where mortgage rates might go in the next five years. Mortgage rates are impacted by the economy, which is often unpredictable or volatile. Right now, it looks like mortgage rates will ease over the next two years and remain relatively steady in the years that follow.
If you’re worried about fluctuating rates, you can talk with your loan officer about where they see rates trending in the near term and whether it makes sense to lock in your mortgage rate.
An ARM can be a good choice when rates are high, since you may be able to get a lower initial rate. But unlike with fixed-rate mortgages, your ARM’s rate will change periodically after a number of years, potentially increasing your mortgage payment.
