Gold price prediction today: Gold prices have been volatile in the last few days amidst geopolitical uncertainties. Where are they headed and what should investors do – buy, sell or hold gold? What gold rate levels should you watch out for? Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities explains:Gold Market Overview:MCX Gold June 2025 contract is displaying bearish technical patterns after forming a lower high at ₹93400 levels. The precious metal has recently completed a V-shaped recovery from its lows of ₹91600 but appears to be facing strong resistance at current levels. The price action suggests exhaustion in the recovery rally, presenting attractive sell opportunities for intraday traders. Technical AnalysisCurrent price: ₹93239 Key Technical Indicators:
- Bollinger Bands: Price has approached the upper band and shows signs of rejection, indicating potential reversal
- RSI (14): At 66.32, approaching overbought territory with negative divergence forming
- Moving Averages: The recovery has pushed price near the 8-day EMA, but still well below the bearish 21-day EMA (₹96500)
- Pivot Points: Previous day’s pivot resistance levels acting as strong barriers to upward movement
- Price Pattern: Formation of bearish engulfing pattern near the recent high suggests selling pressure
Sell-on-Rise Strategy: Entry Parameters:
- Primary Sell Zone: ₹93350-93450
- Secondary Sell Zone: ₹93650-93750 (if market extends rally)
- Stop Loss: ₹93950 (above recent swing high)
- Target 1: ₹92800 (previous support level)
- Target 2: ₹92400 (next significant support)
- Target 3: ₹91800 (for aggressive traders)
Execution Guidelines:
- Look for bearish candlestick patterns (shooting star, bearish engulfing) in the sell zone
- Confirm with RSI showing negative divergence or crossing below 65
- Volume should ideally be higher on down moves than up moves
- Maintain strict stop loss discipline regardless of analysis
Breakdown Strategy: Entry Parameters:
- Breakdown Level: Below ₹93100 (crucial support)
- Entry Price: ₹93100
- Stop Loss: ₹93350
- Target 1: ₹92850
- Target 2: ₹92750
- Target 3: ₹92600 (for aggressive traders)
Execution Guidelines:
- Wait for a decisive break below ₹93100 with increased volume
- Confirm breakdown with 15-minute candle close below the level
- RSI should preferably be below 50 for confirmation
- Avoid entry if breakdown occurs with very low volume
Market OutlookGold appears vulnerable to further downside in the immediate term. The recent recovery lacks strength and is likely a corrective rally within a broader downtrend. The metal faces significant overhead resistance at ₹93500-₹94000 levels, while support structures appear to be weakening. The bearish bias is reinforced by:1. Formation of lower highs on daily timeframe2. Failure to reclaim the 21-day EMA3. RSI showing potential negative divergence4. Negative global cues for precious metals Risk Factors
- Unexpected dollar weakness
- Geopolitical developments
- Dovish Federal Reserve commentary
- Inflation data surprises
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
