Gold price prediction today: Gold prices have been rising, but are also below their record low. Gold rate rise is showing signs of exhaustion. Where are MCX Gold prices headed and what should investors do? Should they buy or sell gold? Here’s the analysis from Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities:Gold Market OverviewMCX Gold June 2025 contract is expected to open slightly higher around ₹98200 levels on Friday, following mixed global cues. However, the 30-minute chart reveals critical resistance zones that suggest any upward move should be viewed as a selling opportunity. The precious metal’s recent price action indicates exhaustion at higher levels, creating an ideal setup for contrarian traders. Technical Analysis: 30-Minute TimeframeCurrent Market Structure: Gold has been trading in a volatile range with clear signs of distribution near the ₹99000 psychological level. The recent sharp decline from highs of ₹99300 followed by a recovery attempt suggests a classic bear flag formation. Key Technical Parameters:
- Expected Opening: ₹98200 (marginally higher)
- EMA 21: ₹98300 (acting as immediate resistance)
- EMA 8: ₹97980 (short-term support)
- RSI (14): Currently at 38.63 (oversold bounce territory)
- MACD: Showing bearish momentum with histogram in negative territory
- Bollinger Bands: Price testing middle band with upper band acting as strong resistance
- Primary Strategy: Sell on Rise Near ₹98500
Strategic Foundation: The ₹98500 level represents a confluence of multiple resistance factors that make it an optimal selling zone: 1. Fibonacci Retracement: 38.2% retracement of the recent decline from ₹99300 to ₹97500 2. Previous Support Turned Resistance: Earlier support level now acting as resistance 3. Bollinger Band Resistance: Approaching the upper band of the current range 4. Volume Profile: Low volume acceptance above ₹98400 levels 5. Psychological Resistance: Round number significance Entry Parameters: Primary Sell Zone: ₹98450-98550 Optimal Entry: ₹98500 Stop Loss: ₹98750 (above recent swing high) Target 1: ₹98000 (immediate support) Target 2: ₹97750 (next significant support) Intraday Execution:
- Allow initial volatility to settle
- Watch for any upward movement toward resistance zone
- Prepare for entry as price approaches ₹98450
Market Sentiment FactorsSupporting Bearish View:
- Technical Breakdown: Clear break below previous support levels
- Volume Pattern: Higher volume on declines compared to advances
- Global Headwinds: Strength in Dollar Index pressuring gold
Risk Factors:
- Geopolitical Tensions: Unexpected safe-haven demand
- Dollar Weakness: Any sudden USD decline
- Economic Data: Weak US economic indicators
Alternative ScenariosBull Case (Low Probability): If gold sustains above ₹98750 with strong volume, it could target: ₹99000 (psychological resistance) ₹99300 (previous high) Trading PsychologyThe expected higher opening might create false optimism among retail traders. Professional traders should use this sentiment against the crowd by selling into strength. The key is patience – wait for the right technical setup at the resistance zone. ConclusionThe technical setup presents a high-probability selling opportunity near ₹98500. The confluence of resistance factors, combined with bearish momentum indicators, supports the sell-on-rise strategy. However, traders must remain disciplined and execute the plan systematically while maintaining strict risk management protocols. (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
