Gold price prediction today: MCX Gold August 2025 contract has opened with a spectacular gap up at ₹100,300, marking a massive surge of over 1,800 points from previous levels. This dramatic move is likely triggered by overnight geopolitical tensions on Israel attacks on Iran Nuclear sites. Dollar weakness at 98$, has created a new bullish paradigm for the precious metal. While the gap up presents immediate profit opportunities, seasoned traders are positioning for strategic buy-on-dips entries. Here’s the analysis from Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities:Technical Transformation After Gap OpeningPrevious Close: ₹98,400Gap Up Opening: ₹100,300 (+1,800 points) The massive gap up has completely altered the technical landscape:
- Price has decisively broken above all previous resistance levels
- Moving averages are now acting as support rather than resistance
- RSI has moved into overbought territory but shows strong momentum
- MACD histogram is showing explosive positive momentum
Key Technical Recalibration Intraday:
- EMA 8: ₹99,500 (now strong support)
- EMA 21: ₹98,800 (primary support zone for dip buying)
- RSI (14): 84.72 (overbought but trending higher)
- MACD: Massive positive divergence with histogram at 84.74
- Bollinger Bands: Price trading well above upper band, indicating strong momentum
Primary Strategy: Buy Gold on Dips Near ₹99,000Strategic Foundation:The ₹99,000 level, coinciding with the 21-day EMA, represents the most logical support zone for dip buying in this new bullish environment. This level offers multiple confluence factors: 1. EMA 21 Support: The 21-period moving average at ₹99,000 provides dynamic support 2. Psychological Level: Round number support with strong psychological significance 3. Gap Fill Protection: Sufficient distance from gap opening to avoid immediate fill 4. Volume Profile: High volume acceptance above ₹99,000 during previous sessions 5. Fibonacci Support: 50% retracement of recent rally from ₹97,500 to current levelsEntry Parameters:
- Primary Buy Zone: ₹98,900-99,100
- Optimal Entry: ₹99,000
- Stop Loss: ₹98,600 (below EMA 21 with buffer)
- Target 1: ₹100,000
- Target 2: ₹100,500 (psychological level)
Risk-Reward Analysis:
- Maximum Risk: 400 points (from ₹99,000 to ₹98,600)
- Minimum Reward: 1,000 points (to ₹100,500)
- Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3 (Exceptional for momentum trades)
Stop Loss Management:
- Initial Stop: ₹98,600 (strict discipline required)
- Trailing Stop: Move to breakeven after 50% of Target 1 achieved
- Profit Protection: Secure 75% profits at Target 2
ConclusionThe gap up opening in gold has created a paradigm shift from resistance-based selling to support-based buying strategies. The ₹99,000 level offers an exceptional risk-reward opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on this momentum breakout. However, the elevated volatility demands disciplined execution and strict adherence to risk management protocols.The technical setup strongly favors buyers on any weakness, with multiple confluence factors supporting the ₹99,000 zone. Traders should remain patient, wait for the market to come to them, and execute the strategy with precision when the opportunity presents itself. (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
