Gold price prediction: Global gold prices have been fluctuating – from hitting new highs, to giving up those gains – as trade uncertainties are weighing on the yellow metal’s outlook. Domestically, the India-Pakistan conflict has also triggered some safe haven buying.So what’s the gold rate outlook for this week? What are the key events that will shape the direction of gold prices going ahead and what should investors do? Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers shares his views and recommendations:Gold, which posted strong gains last week, closing at $3325 per oz, erased its weekly losses amid US China trade deal optimism as both countries over weekend discussions agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction. On the MCX, gold closed near Rs 96,500 per 10 gm & silver around Rs 96,700 per kilogram on Friday last week, pushing the gold-silver ratio above 100:1Meanwhile at the start of the week US Stocks registered gains in the aftermath of the US-China deal, in which both countries lowered duties and agreed to sustain further talks to reach a trade agreement. Washington and Beijing agreed to lower duties from 145% to 30% and from 125% to 10%, respectively, as revealed in a joint statement released. This weighed heavily on sentiments for Gold. Meanwhile, traders lowered their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut rates just twice instead of three in 2025, according to data revealed by Prime Market Terminal.
Gold Price Outlook
Cooling US China trade uncertainty had so far weighed on sentiments, but some investors remain wary about the lack of detail in their deal announcement, and another flare-up could propel bullion to lead to volatility in prices. Focus this week could also remain on critical US macro cues including US Core Producer & Consumer Price Index which is expected to remain stable for the last month as impact of increased US tariffs takes place. Meanwhile, the Fed’s refusal to commit to a timeline for rate cuts had kept uncertainty against monetary policy decisions last week, but the Fed chair is due to speak this week providing fresh cues to the market. If Powell signals discomfort with current labor market trends, expectations for rate cuts will likely strengthen, offering support for gold at lower levels.Geopolitical tensions will also be in focus this week amid Russia Ukraine peace deal as two leaders meet face to face on Thursday in Turkey. However the same is not confirmed by the Russian president so far while military clashes between Ukraine & Russia still continue to take place. With May-June month remaining seasonally subdued, a consolidative phase might occur in prices in the current month.Meanwhile Silver is expected to remain steady amid trade deal optimism between US & China could keep the downside limited in white metal. Tariff de-escalation moves would be constructive for silver, which derives more than half of its demand from industrial uses such as electronics and solar manufacturing. Traders will be looking for signs that the deal includes measures that could improve industrial trade flows for Silver.
Gold Weekly View – Volatile
MCX Gold June (CMP Rs. 93,990 per 10 gm); Sell on rise in the range of 94,800 – 95,500, with SL around 96,300, Target 93,000 – 92,500 (Duration, 1 – 2 weeks)(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
